I have never found advice from a PGA Tour pro who may not necessarily excel in playing but still understands the skill and subtlety enough to appreciate the inherent value in spending your money wisely.
If there’s someone out there who you think is likely to win soon, especially at a specific course,” this player told me, “then you should probably keep backing them until they do.”
A few days later, I’m considering this advice as I make my selections for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Anyone who’s been dabbling in golf for a while can understand that there are certain tournaments where a name will always be at the forefront of your thought process, even before all the research and modeling.
Rory McIlroy’s matchless performance between the ropes at Augusta National and the venue’s impeccable match-ups could be a prime example, where mere cash doesn’t always get you tickets. Tony Finau’s footsteps fit in there too – he’s finished second, fourth, and sixth (three times!) but has never quite clinched victory. Then there’s Shane Lowry, fitting that same mold at the PGA National, where he posted a solid third-place finish last week.
I’ve gathered all of this because Matt Fitzpatrick is one of those players for me who always seems like a contender at Bay Hill, and his robust finishes have only reinforced that feeling; it hasn’t deterred it.
I’ll be making my Fitzpick selections momentarily, but the main point here is that we shouldn’t stray too far from week to week. It could be predictive in API, where a strong performance outside the top tier in a tougher course on the PGA Tour is inevitable.
This one’s a home game for me. I can’t wait to head down Bay Hill Drive, where I’ll be hosting my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show with co-host Michael Collins for a few days this week. Let’s dive into a few of those picks we’ll be discussing.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Authority Picks
Brief Contrarian Pick for Tournament Win
Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500)
I first saw Matt Fitzpatrick in person a decade ago at Bay Hill, where he was competing against the top professionals in the prestigious American championship game. He posted scores of 71-81, missing the cut, but it was clear he was in the mix that week.
Personally, I’ve watched him practice a bit before tournaments, as he chips away at targets in the greenside rough. There was something about the Bermuda turf and Englishman’s match-ups that felt like a natural connection.
A decade later, he’s made nine starts in this tournament, garnering four top-10 finishes and six top-25 finishes, which carries some clear weight for him. After closing out a solid-but-spectacular performance at PGA National, where he showed signs of being in form, he carries a lot of promise into this week, a value that must be sweet in the market.
To win a tournament in long adversity
Corey Conners (+7000)
I’ve mentioned Corey Conners a lot in the past few months – quite a bit, really, considering he still hasn’t posted a top-20 finish in six starts this year. So, why go back to him this week? Well, the explanation might be ‘definition of insanity,’ repeatedly doing the same thing and expecting different results.
Another, though, is to follow the blueprint of a Canadian Fitzpatrick, as keeping his ball-striking prowess mixed is appropriate when expecting equivalent scores from competitors. He was a solo third here three years ago, so we’ve seen Conners duel with the Kaners before. In the final round of the Cognizant Classic, he’s seeking to maintain that pace anew.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational OAD Selection
One and done potential pick for a complete field
Scottie Scheffler (+700)
Look, I don’t need to tell you that Scottie Scheffler is really good at golf – or that he won this event two years ago and finished fourth last year. Though what you may need to know is an anecdote that in OADs, which don’t offer bonus money/points for Majors, the value of these signature events is the same, if not more.
The moral of the story is that when your pool starts saving the world’s No. 1 ranked player for a “big” tournament, don’t be afraid to use him in a spot where the small field won’t. He has greater equity in victory, and you might get a little contrarian action from the public.
Jason Day (+3500)
Since his win here in 2016, when he was still among the best golfers in the world, Jason Day has finished no better than 22nd from five starts at the start. In other words, until last year, when he finished tied for 10th.
Until now this year, he has quietly played some very good golf again, finishing in the top 10 at each of his first five starts. I think he is undervalued for OADs, DFS, and directly playing this week.
Min Woo Lee (+4500)
When these were released Monday morning, if you were looking for adversity on the API’s direction, you didn’t see Min Woo Lee’s name. He didn’t qualify for this event until PGA National’s final round 67, and he’s justifiably led a portion of the runner-up honors and I’m typing these words, he’s still not listed.
That said, once he likely qualifies for this delayed tournament, he’ll be ready for very appealing golf, especially in OADs and DFSs’ peer-to-peer format, where delay lists cannot include others from their main list.
And I’m already seeing his DFS price – $6,600 on DraftKings! – he’s prepared for a smash game there too, and I’ll be amazed/disappointed if he’s not one of the highest owned players this week.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bet
Top Five
A player can take the top five spots
Cameron Young (For a top-five finish +600)
After finishing fourth at the PGA National last weekend, Cameron Young may feel a bit underwhelming, but following a T16 at Riviera and a T8 at Scottsdale, he now has three tough finishes. On a course that rewards long and straight tee shots, I prefer Young to build on his previous T10 and T13 finishes.
And for a gaming experience, it’s never a hassle to pick a forest dweller at Arnie’s Place.
Top 10
A player to finish top-10
Adam Scott (+350 for a top-10 finish)
Many have questioned why Adam Scott and others have received multiple exemptions now for signature events, as people are joining the PGA Tour policy board and inserting points between handing out exemptions – and some critics suggest there are some insiders among those critics.
A few points in response: first, it’s somewhat naive to think this trend is exclusive to these niche fields, but we can call it the Justin Thomas rule, even though their games keep them away from earning qualification primarily, they still mix in some big names.
Secondly, we should look at these case-by-case; Scott has earned a solid card and certainly plays tough golf, with top-20 finishes in his last seven global events, despite some off-course work with fellow player director and sponsor Webb Simpson at Wake Forest.
Thirdly, and I understand it might be a controversial move, but to assist the PGA Tour in creating a good place for membership, it’s not unreasonable to see how much off-course work these guys are doing, especially with everything else going on. Let’s at least ask the question if these volunteer positions should come with some off-course perks.
Certainly, it seems biased towards the page’s perspective, but it’s easy to see it as a necessary time and effort for their current role and a reward as a gesture of effort. Regardless, Scott is here this week, and it would be unfair to overlook him as someone who hasn’t earned his spot. Although he started his previous API starts with just two top-10 finishes, he’s playing some tough golf now and should be able to carry it over here.
Top 20
A player to finish top 20
Christian Bezuidenhout (+210 for a top-20 finish)
My pick for last week’s Conigent Classic was Christian Bezuidenhout, who started off inspiringly with a solid first-round total but quickly rose to the top of the leaderboard on Friday morning, taking himself to second place halfway through his round.
If you blinked, however, you may have missed him taking a wrong turn, as his last seven holes included two doubles and three bogeys, taking him away from the spot on the leaderboard line. Nevertheless, as I wrote last week, I’m still very excited for his prospects at the Florida Swing, and now he’s back on the hill where he was a member and has three top-20s to start his career.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Picks
DFS Free Bingo Square
DFS Lineup Safe Plug-and-Play Option
Victor Hovland
In the past year ‘M’, it’s been a big surprise that Victor Hovland hasn’t turned off the heat, finishing T22, T58, and T19 in his last outings. It could simply be down to fewer buying reasons, which he openly admits, reducing him on this bingo square and a high-priced but potential low ownership pick.”
In this condensed field of eligible players, some with lower salaries, you’ll be able to afford a big name and Holland – there’s a slight difference in the top two finishes with the second and 10th teams in the tournament.
DFS Mid-Tier
A mid-priced option for DFS lineup
Byung Hun An
Players like Colin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg have shown in recent years that success can be immediate after turning professional, albeit taking quite some time for many.
The same could be said for Ben An, who, since being the lowest-scoring American amateur champion in 2009 at 17, could potentially transform into an elite-level player after 15 years, with four top-25 finishes this year, including one top-five among his six starts.
It wasn’t always a place he favored, but his tee-to-green game is now so strong that I’m inclined to back him to contend for that historic win.
Sports betting in Tar Heel State is coming, and stay up to date on the latest about North Carolina sports betting apps that we expect to go live at the time of our launch.
DFS ‘Pup
A lower-priced alternative for DFS lineup
Taylor Moore
With expected breezy conditions in Orlando this weekend, I’m looking for players who can manage these conditions. Taylor Moore has proven himself as a strong wind player and comes with the added bonus of being the winner in the Sunshine State last year.
While he hasn’t done anything particularly remarkable this year, merely taking a step forward in the upper echelon would be necessary for him to start climbing some leaderboards again.
More Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
First round leader
A player to potentially outperform relative to other players
Chris Kirk (FRL at +4500)
Starting 11 times at Bay Hill, Chris Kirk has opened with at least a 67 in each of his past five years. Last year, his first-round 67 left him second by Thursday evening, just behind Sungjae Im’s 65. With a final-round 65 at the API National, Kirk showed some striking numbers with three consecutive birdies. He’s gaining momentum at Bay Hill.
Matchup Man
A player who should lose relative to comparable players
Will Zalatoris (+3500)
In the 30/1-35/1 range this week, my personal sweet spot, the prices for Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jason Day are all appealing. It may be tougher to find a suitable counterpart for Will Zalatoris, but he’s someone whose game is still on the right path after a lot of time lost to injury last year.
Even if Zalatoris doesn’t offer much value in that particular matchup, he should still be a fantastic play in other formats.
Additionally, Voting
Other players who deserve consideration
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500), Stephan Jaeger (+7000), Tom Hoge (+8000), Adam Schenk (+18000)
For true golf aficionados, this is like Christmas in March, as we finally arrive at the first alternate-field event of the year. Over the past few years, the winning scores have always hovered around 20-under, but predicting who will shoot that is less certain, as we’ve seen everything from star-in-the-making Victor Hovland to Ryan Brehm missing the cut. Here are some names to consider for this one.
He’s a favorite here at 7500-golf course, and the length of the tee will be a major factor, as we believe. And up until now, Kris Goutar (+2500), who led the driving distance on the PGA Tour, is more likely to have it than anyone else. He hasn’t yet won at Bay Hill, but his Monday performance at the PGA National may have given him some inspiration from friend Austin Eckroat’s solo victory.
In an OAD pool where I’m left with all my season picks before the season, Sam Stevens (+4000) was my pick here, and I’m not moving away from it now. Speaking of Eckroat, Stevens would be surprised if he added to his product line as another Oklahoma State product, but that doesn’t mean anything will help them play as much as playing against them in the tournament.
I’ve already gone with Chan Kim (+4500) a few times this year, with varying degrees of success. As long as you don’t start looking at the rest of the field, this number doesn’t seem like much value, which can be frustrating.
Rico Hoey (+11000) has some semblance, but he hasn’t shown much promise at the highest level to start his rookie campaign, at least not yet. I’m eager for that change to take place, where he’s been all over the map.
A resort-style, alternate-field venue has seen very few players enjoy success. Bryce Garnett (+15000) is one of them. He’s a good play at this number.
I understand that Kevin Kisner (+35000) is probably transitioning from player to commentator, as he’s had very few of his best things over the past few years, but this number is much bigger than what he’ll take as a small opportunity this week.
It’s a similar story for Brandt Snedeker (+40000), who has shown some flashes recently and at least knows what it takes to win at this level, which we can’t say for about 90 percent of the field here.
