The race for the NHL’s most prestigious awards this season is notably contentious, with legitimate claims for a half-dozen players in the running for the Hart Trophy.
“I can’t lie, I’m in the thick of it. But I’m fighting with joy because the Hart race is giving us more top-line entertainment than we’ve seen year after year,” one voter said. “I also believe it’s incumbent upon voters to fight for these decisions and consider every aspect.”
The NHL Awards Watch in March is a real battle, with our monthly ballot being the gauge for the competition for each award. Because what we’re witnessing in this race truly, truly, comes close.
For current leaders, the wind is where the books are kept, as we present a comprehensive selection of votes from the Professional Hockey Writers Association. We’ve made sure it’s as cross-divisional as possible.
Remember that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke, and Lady Byng finalists; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers vote for the Vezina.
All statistics from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick, and evolving-hockey.com.
Take a glance ahead:
Hart | Richard | Trophy
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (Point Leader)
Leader: Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Watch out for: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Honorable mention: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy (Leading Goal Scorer)
Leader: Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
Watch out for: Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
Honorable mention: Jack Eichel, Edmonton Oilers
Leader: Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Finalists: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche; Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
In the past, our MVP vote was. This one’s different. Most Hart races involve two players. Around four candidates are involved in this one. Four of these players have received more than a dozen first-place votes from the PHWA panel. The most support has been garnered by Kucherov, MacKinnon, and Matthews.
These players are among the more than two dozen who have received first-place votes from more than two dozen PHWA members on our two-dozen ballots. Kucherov, MacKinnon, and Matthews have received the most support.
“Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews, and Nathan MacKinnon are all players you would pick out of a hat. There’s no clear winner here because they’re all strong contenders,” said one voter in a post-game analysis.
But it’s Kucherov who leads the Hart Trophy race as we enter the final weeks of the season, and that might be somewhat surprising.
MacKinnon has garnered the most attention around the league for MVP this season, both for his scoring streak and his “impactfulness” for awards consideration. While he’s never won the Hart Trophy, he’s finished second twice (2018, 2020) and third once (2021). Kucherov, Matthews, and McDavid have all won the award before.
As ESPN’s Dog Greenberg mentioned in his recent piece about MVP betting, Matthews was the leader in the race according to their latest polls, with 53% of Hart Trophy bets on him in the last two weeks.
Yet here’s Kucherov, who won the Hart Trophy in 2018-19, making a strong case for MacKinnon’s leadership in points. Kucherov has received more MVP votes than the Avalanche star, edging closer to your current narrative as much as you can get.
In Kucherov’s case, some time-honored Hart Trophy standards apply:
He tallied 105 points over 62 games, leading the NHL.
He outscored the next closest scorer, Braden Point (65), by a whopping 40 points, a significant margin. For comparison, MacKinnon was only 23 points ahead of Mikko Rantanen over 62 games.
There’s a strong narrative at play here. The Lightning started the season without Andrei Vasilevskiy until November 23 and their goaltender didn’t return from surgery until later. It’s a top-heavy team that held onto a wildcard spot and many of our voters believe they’re only there because of Kucherov. It doesn’t quite work the same way for MacKinnon or Matthews.
“I’m not sure we’d even be in the playoffs without Kucherov,” one voter said.
“Tampa Bay Lightning’s playoff spot is [tentatively] not assured without Nikita Kucherov,” another added. “Not even close. Plus, he’s on pace for 140 points, no sign of slowing down.”
“Kucherov has factored in a hilarious 50% of Lightning’s goals this season. Without him, Tampa Bay wouldn’t even be shooting for the playoffs,” another voter remarked. “Surely, the Bolts need to prepare a case for him.”
Another voter added: “Kucherov was a stabilizing force for Tampa Bay in a season marked by inconsistency. We’re asking in March if they’re going to make the playoffs and they seem to be relinquishing natural stat tricks and not clicking ‘5-on-5’ like Lightning fans hoped. Is this holding back his Hart case?”
But again, that compelling case has given him just one more vote than MacKinnon, who led the NHL Awards Watch in Hart Trophy votes for nearly two months – securing 80% of first-place votes in February.
MacKinnon has 101 points over 62 games. His 29-game point streak on home ice was the longest of any player this season. Additionally, he had a 19-game point streak, one game shy of being able to score in every game, and started a 14-game point streak right after. Few players have been more steady and effective on the ice this season than the net dog.
“It’s still Nathan MacKinnon for me. Leafs fans may argue there’s comparable metrics for Matthews versus MacKinnon and it’s not just about goals, but they act like we can’t go down to the natural stat trick and click ‘5-on-5’,” one voter lamented. “Matthews gives everyone leadership with 5-on-5 goals, but MacKinnon provides enough drop-off before he’s right there. He leads the league in 5-on-5 goals and he leads the league in team leadership, which is a shaky zero, but I like his unique game and his impact.”
“And remember: McDavid should win MVP this season for a “reason.”
“For Nikita Kucherov and long-term, it makes sense for Connor McDavid to make a case, but how McDavid navigated the blizzard is remembered when he was the one standing as they ran the Stanley Cup,” one voter explained. “He was very close in 2018 when Taylor Hall won it, and McDavid deserves it this time.”
In the case of Matthews, it’s quite simple: if Timo Salonen and Alex Mogilny both broke the 70-goal mark in 1992-93, who could deny the star of the Maple Leafs their first NHL player?
(Fun fact: Salonen didn’t get the first-place votes for his 160-point campaign, and Mogilny didn’t get a single vote for the Hart that season.)
“McDavid has been my frontrunner since December, but Matthews has carried the torch all season, and they’re now winning consistently,” one voter said.
“If he gets 70 goals, then he can get my first-place vote,” another voter said.
“Anytime Leafs get to a playoff-level, it feels like Matthews has been the center of attention or played a prominent role,” another voter mentioned. “It’s hard to overlook.”
From our panel, neither McDavid nor Pastrnak received the first-place votes for MVP. It was Hellebuyck.
The Hart Trophy hasn’t always been sympathetic to goalies. Since 2000, only two goalies have won the Hart: Jose Theodore (2002) and Carey Price (2015), both in seasons where the Vezina was also captured. It’s a bit like Cy Young vs MVP in baseball: “Pitchers have their own award” argument has been made for decades. Clearly, some tinkering is needed to complicate matters in hockey’s own showbiz context.
Historical statistics and advanced analytics both show Hellebuyck has a significant number, where, like athletes, he’s top netminder with more saves (19.8) than expected goals. When Price won the Hart, he led the league in wins, percentage, and saved goals – the opposite of average. Hellebuyck can do the same this season. With the Jets’ superb defensive season and remarkable play-offs, he deserves most of the credit.
“Connor McDavid is making a comeback,” one voter said.
Pastrnak didn’t get the first-place vote either but is worth watching. He’s ahead of the Bruins’ second-leading scorer, Brad Marchand, by 12 goals and 35 points. There’s still an opportunity to finish the league’s top scorer, which would be quite a feat considering the setback from last season’s team – and could bring Pastrnak back into the conversation.
Norris Trophy (Top Defenseman)
Leader: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
Finalists: Noah Dobson, New York Islanders; Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
The Norris Trophy race has started to tilt towards Hughes to give him a landslide victory. It’s his fifth award watch of the season and fourth time atop the Hughes rankings. He received 70% of the first-place votes last month and has returned up to 78% in this award watch.
“He leads all D-men in points and points-per-game, skating nearly 25 minutes a night,” one voter said of Hughes, who had 71 points in 63 games.
Hughes makes a strong case with his passing, puck-carrying, and puck-recovery analytics as well. Overall, he’s an exceptional performer for a defenseman who has fueled one of the NHL’s top teams from the backend.”
Here’s the English translation of the provided text:
“It’s said that the voters of the Wild don’t value Macar. The Avalanche defenseman has gathered votes from our writers in every first-place Norris ballot.
“It could go under their radar,” a voter predicted.
“What Macar brings to the table is playing in every situation. He doesn’t take anything away from the Wild. It’s not surprising, and at the beginning of this year, he was the favorite. What Macar does is make it very difficult to ignore him, and it’s true that he’s very valuable for bringing snowfall to many areas,” another voter explained. “He and the Wild both play a top-pairing minute and are in control of power play. The difference is that Macar’s team has a slight lead in the standings, where the Wild are nowhere near the top.”
The third Norris finalist is somewhat of a mystery. Many of our voters expect it to be Dobson, who was almost in the top three in scoring among defensemen throughout the season. But keep an eye on Tampa Bay’s Headman and Nashville’s Josi, the previous two winners whose wild-card performances for their respective teams could boost their cases.
Leader: Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild
Finalists: Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks; Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild
Last month, due to a broken jaw, Bedard missed more than a month’s worth of games, dramatically changing the Calder race theatrically. It’s allowed Faber to gain points and attract voters who weren’t familiar with his impact on the Wild this season. Bedard and Faber were in a dead heat last month. Now, in Calder voting, Faber is one vote ahead.
Through 62 games, Faber has led all rookies in scoring (34) and average ice time among rookies (25:07 per game). He’s played a crucial role in Minnesota’s defense and has maintained an unwavering presence despite his lack of experience.
“He’s the most important player for the Wild because he’s been asked to be a 1st-line defenseman every day of the season,” one voter said. “Faber was there when Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon were struck. He truly was a constant force in a wild season.”
Faber voters acknowledge that Bedard has been impressive this season and has a bright future ahead of him. They don’t just think he’s the NHL’s top rookie.
“Connor Bedard is a more talented player, and people will question why Bedard didn’t win the Calder,” another voter mentioned. “But Faber is having a good season by some measurable standards.”
“Bedard checks every box: he’s a top-line center, he plays top-line minutes, and he leads his team in different offensive categories,” another one said. “He’s capable of winning and achieving the unattainable, which will be appreciated. But what Faber has done, and the contribution he’s made, won’t be overlooked. It’s a complete unknown.”
Faber has received strong support alone this month. Due to Bedard’s injury, he’s spent some time in a bit of a slump. Additionally, he’s posted a minus-31 in 47 games and scored less than a point per game (0.87). But there are some supporters who believe he’s the best defenseman of the season, a full stop.
“He’s broken through his shell and he’s still leading all forwards in scoring,” give credit to Brock Faber, but Bedard is the better player,” one voter concluded.
“Faber was exceptional with his minutes played, but Bedard is still ahead in goals and points and is now back,” another said. “Besides another injury, he’ll pass Calder with ease.”
In the past three weeks, if Faber hadn’t skidded in scoring, it could have been a different conversation. But now, despite missing six weeks with a broken wrist, Bender still clears the point total from the entire hiatus.
For the next month, other contenders to keep in mind are: Philadelphia Flyers’ goalkeeper Samuel Ersan, who led in netminding in all games; New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes, who ranked fourth among scoring defenders with 31 points in 61 games; Carolina Hurricanes’ goalkeeper Pyotr Kochetkov, who was a hitter for them; Columbus Blue Jackets winger Dimitri Voronkov, who scored 16 goals in 54 games; and Calgary Flames center Konar Jari, who added strength to their squad with 29 points in 50 games.
“Dimitri Voronkov, who will either be second or third on my ballot at this moment, is a super smart, great buddy, and already one of my favorite players in the entire NHL,” said one voter.
Vezina Trophy (Top Goaltender)
Note: NHL general managers vote for this award.
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks; Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames
If it’s up to the writers, Hellebuyck may fare well on his way to his second Vezina victory of the 2019-20 season, as he has already won the award for that season. He garnered 91% of the first-place votes in the awards watch edition of Awards Watch.
As we mentioned in the Hart Trophy section, there are no other goalkeepers’ combined historical and advanced statistics that suggest Hellebuyck will make a convincing case this season. His numbers, which have been a solid .920 save percentage in a season of increased scoring, stand out.
One voter said, “There’s no fault to any other candidate, but he’s been among leaders in various categories and has a safe percentage at .920 in a season where we’ve seen scoring increase,” one voter said. “There’s much more to the Jets’ success this year than Hellebuyck, but they won’t be contending for the top pick or the President’s Trophy without him.”
Demko received 9% of the first-place votes. From statistics to impact on his team, the same case that Hellebuyck has is there for Demko, but his numbers are slightly less. It’s an accomplishment apart from wins, and it’s a statistic that cannot be overlooked in this award’s realm: among the past 10 Vezina winners, four have led the league in save percentage.
Markstrom followed soon after in the vote. While his traditional statistics remain strong (.914 save percentage, 2.57 goals-against average), he is the most enticing goaltender in advanced metrics in the NHL. In terms of high-danger chances, his numbers set him apart: for instance, he has the best save percentage from shots in tight in the league.
Other goaltenders to consider for our voters include Sergei Bobrovsky of the Florida Panthers and Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins.
Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward)
Leader: Alexander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers; Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
It’s clear after just the fourth month that Barkov has emerged on top in polling, inheriting the Selke mantle from six-time winner Patrice Bergeron’s retirement.
“Can I still vote for Bergernak?” a voter inquired, still grappling with the strength of that habit.
