Veteran guards, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, alongside rising stars like Carlos Alcaraz, are back in action at the BNP Paribas Open. What lies within the track of their titles? Our men’s preview.
These days, when you tell an ATP player that a tournament is mandatory, you don’t have to tell them twice. The top 32 of the tour will all be present, participating in the 2024 BNP Paribas Open, the first Masters 1000 event of the year. Among them is the top-seeded Novak Djokovic, who hasn’t played here since 2019.
In this expanded event, they’ll be vying for a $12 million prize pool. The focus here is on what awaits Djokovic and his fellow competitors when they step onto the court.
Full ATP BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Draw.
Read more: Indian Wells Champion, Dark Horses, and Quick Exits—Our Experts Chosen.
In 2019, Djokovic bid farewell to his faithful after exiting in the third round at Indian Wells. Five years later, the five-time champion returns to the desert.
First Quarterfinals:
Djokovic returns to California with rare hints of doubt surrounding his game. Last time we saw him, he suffered an early exit at the Australian Open. Perhaps even more notably, he’ll be over 37 years old within two months’ time. Combine these two facts, and Djokovic isn’t a clear favorite for the title despite being a five-time champion here. Furthermore, when he lost in the Wimbledon final and returned to Cincinnati, he wasn’t exactly favored, and we emerged as the victor from there.
Djokovic should be pleased with what he sees in his quarter. 30th seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the first choice he could face. After that, he could take on either Tommy Paul or Ugo Humbert. Neither of these boys has caused much harm to Djokovic in the past.
Also in this section: 2021 Indian Wells champion, and 28th seed, Cameron Norrie.
Potential American Showdown in the Second Round:
No. 17 Tommy Paul vs. Alexei Michelson
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells champion and Southern California native, lifted the Delray Beach trophy last month.
In the second quarter:
Daniil Medvedev, we know, doesn’t fancy Indian Wells’ hard courts. They consider it insulting because they’re too slow. Even as they don’t consider their hard courts, and he knows, because he’s a hard-court specialist. But what changed his attitude? Once, despite jumping against the Russian wall, he won the title in Rome’s red clay. And after all of his troubles in 2023, he made it to the Indian Wells final.
The only problem is, Medvedev isn’t coming in hot like he did 12 months ago. Instead, he’s still recovering from his five-set loss in the Australian Open final. His third-round opponent, Sebastián Córdova, who has beaten him in the past, could pose a problem. Among the other contenders in this quarter are 7th seed Holger Rune and 2022 champ Taylor Fritz.
Then there’s Rafael Nadal. The former No. 1 and guest of Larry Ellison’s annual house party will kick off with a tough one against Milos Raonic. Rafa dominated the Canadians 8-2, but at 37 years old in 2024, an easy stroll isn’t likely.
Potential second-round matchups to watch: No. 26 Lorenzo Musetti vs. Denis Shapovalov. A one-handed backhand enthusiast, quick and fiery out there.
Semifinalist: Fritz
Winning the Australian Open and Indian Wells sets up an exhilarating time for the Big 3 as they make their return. Are their challengers at their heels, or will they remain atop the human ladder?
Gaze
Yes, the return of Djokovic and Nadal to the desert this week will add spice to the tournament title, but the performances of the younger seeds will be equally captivating. Winning the Australian Open and Indian Wells sets up an exhilarating time for the Big 3 as they make their return. Are their challengers at their heels, or will they remain atop the human ladder? We’ll get a glimpse over the next two weeks.
Fritz emerges as a manageable draw. He will kick off against Thanasi Kokkinakis or Marcos Giron. He could face Jan-Lennard Struff and Ben Shelton in the subsequent rounds. The potential opponents in the quarterfinals include Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Frances Tiafoe. Speaking of Rublev, can he keep his default in check enough to challenge? It might take a few weeks to tell.
Match to watch in the first round: Chris Eubanks vs. Brandon Nakashima
Match to watch in the potential second round: No. 5 Andrey Rublev vs. Andy Murray
Semifinalist: Sinner
Melbourne saw Jabrev defeating Alcaraz again in the Spaniards’ section.
Quarterfinals
Last year, many of us hoped Carlos Alcaraz would step onto the hard court in Indian Wells, and he did. His victory over Medvedev in the final was picture perfect.
What can we expect from him in 2024? The possibility of a direct title win is certainly there, but the past 12 months have shown us that Alcaraz is also likely to depart sooner than expected. He remains as electric as before, but nowadays, he has a tendency to overload and short-circuit.
Alcaraz will start his title defense against Luca Van Asshe or Matteo Arnaldi. Then in the next two rounds, he might face Felix Auger-Aliassime and an in-form Karen Khachanov. Alec Jabrev or Dominic Minaur could be waiting in the quarterfinals. Jabrev defeated Alcaraz in the same round in Melbourne, and Minaur is coming off a title run in Acapulco.
Semifinalist: Jabrev
Semifinal: Djokovic d. Fritz; Alcaraz def. Jabrev
Final: Alcaraz d. Djokovic
