Boston — So… Are the Celtics out of place, or are the Celts the future?
I spent last weekend in downtown for the Sloane Sports Analytics Conference, and while I was there, I’ve witnessed Boston’s dismantling of Dallas and their complete domination over Golden State. With a record of 48-12, leading in offense and ranking second in defense with one of the best scoring margins of all time, it seems like the Celtics could finish with one more accolade.
Praising this team further seems futile at this point in history, but at this moment, the Celtics seem utterly unstoppable. The only thing stopping them from being crowned as title favorites is a desired thought or an intentional ignorance, as evidenced by their last four post-seasons.
Analyzing this scene as a backdrop was remarkably appropriate. The Celtics’ dominance partly catalyzed the analytical revolution, and in the same vein, their incredible outlier is what has set them apart from the rest of the NBA.
Let’s start with the primary thing that has influenced the NBA the most: more than two threes. Basketball teams were slow to catch on to it and slow to fully exploit its benefits. Consequently, for quite a few years, a common life hack was available to any team willing to hack: shoot more threes and attack relentlessly.
Take threes, and rise above defensive charts. The frequency of three-pointers on both sides of the court was significantly correlated with success.
Not anymore. We’ve reached a stage where the relationship has completely shattered. Everyone is shooting threes now, and it’s becoming crowded; if they don’t stop the barrage, it’s not because of Neanderthal math; it’s because they’re sucking. Suddenly, there’s no more Brook Lopez or Marc Gasol to be let off the hook as three-point shooters.
Teams are shooting more threes than ever before, resulting in a whopping 39.2% of the total field goals being three-point attempts, but with less return, it’s proving to be a tough blow.
At 36.7% on threes and 54.5% on twos, we’ve roughly reached a threshold where there’s no higher expected return on a common three compared to a common two. The free-throw frequency at twos has exceeded many folds, and teams have already surpassed equilibrium in this aspect.
In a related tale, the frequency of threes and overall offensive prowess have decoupled. Memphis Grizzlies have fallen to the third in three-point rate and mastery in defense. On the flip side, Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers sit second and third in offense, respectively, below average in three-point rate. (They still shoot at the rate of 3s that led the league back in 2016, mind you; their gimmick isn’t outdated yet.)
But there’s a more intriguing story lingering on the defensive end. The shutdown of the three-point attempts opposition has proved elusive — Denver, Orlando, and Minnesota have achieved success against fewer threes from the opposition — most top teams in this division are cooking.
The most notable example is Indiana, where any Pacers fan can attest; they’ve been sold out on threes and only surrendered 28.6 attempts per 100 possessions, the lowest among any team so far. Despite the hiring of Miles Turner as an indigenous rim protector, they’ve claimed the 25th spot defensively, part of the rim protection and free throw rain, as part of the free throw rain, allowing shooters to shoot costlessly.
Against most NBA teams, this skill could become a backfire; guarding the rim has emerged as the most crucial part of defense, and even the best shot blockers could potentially “constrain” the opposition to shoot 65% or more on rim attempts. Steering clear of these attempts and conceding the rest for three-point advantages might be a good bargain for the predators.
This brings us back to our Celtics, as it seems Boston is breaking this skill. Though the full disappearance of the Celtics in the league this season provides various influential statistics, its core is that everyone can shoot and thereby, no help in defense against the opponents.
Boston’s top eight players attempt more than six more threes per 100 possessions and shoot less than 35% from the less than 35% from the field; as a team, Boston has the highest three-point rate (almost every other shot) and stands fourth in accuracy at 38.6%.
Here is the English translation of the provided text:
“In this way, the main tactic against every other team – deny the rim, stay with the 3s – has been effective against Boston primarily. Against the Celtics, a 58 percent effective field goal percentage proposal for the death penalty has stood out.
The threat distribution has completely flipped the nature of other issues, and they have stood completely opposite to the Warriors on Sundays. When the Warriors have surrounded shooters from two generations with a lot more common perimeter skill, Boston has spun eight people who can put you on the mat.
Ironically, it seems that the teams that give Boston the most trouble are the ones ready to take the 3-point gamble; losing the bet against everyone else, it gives them a chance against the Celtics. For example, Denver has beaten Boston twice; Detroit gave up the second-most 3s and everyone pasted it, but this season in Boston.
They were the only ones to take the Celtics to overtime in their only meeting. Denver remains in third place in the standings and has won in Boston (both teams will meet again on Thursday in a possible NBA Finals preview, anyway); Minnesota remains in sixth place and both meetings with the Celtics have gone into overtime.
Otherwise, more perimeter tactics will be effective, such as the first-quarter method in Golden State on Sundays. The Warriors have Green, their best help defender, organized to play away from the 3-point line, and Green is the worst 3-point shooter in Boston (Jaylen Brown, who will be the best shooter in several other teams’ lineups but is shooting only 35.2 percent from 3 this season) and Brown is on fire, keeping him away from the paint. If he misses the first few shots, this Jedi mind trick may work; otherwise, Brown has made five 3s in the first seven minutes and the route was on.
All this shooting and defense result in more than just a splash fest from 3; it’s a rim run too. Boston is third in the NBA in 2-point percentage at 57.6 percent because of effective spacing.
Watch this drama unfold from the second quarter on Sundays. Steve Kerr took Jason Tatum off a switch and mashed him on the block, but he could keep him for four dribbles, more than enough time for a help defender usually. But help never comes, because it’s stuck in action. Four Celtics outside the 3-point line, and they all can shoot.
Kevin Looney worries about Petno’s patrol on top, and Lester Kwonos is eager to leave Brown in the corner and, finally, belatedly, makes a desperate attempt. (If it were stronger, Tatum probably would have left Brown in the corner.) For a frustrated Kerr, for anyone frustrated, for anyone who comes to someone’s rescue, when Tatum breaks through.”
“We used to do this with teams,” Kerr lamented after the game. In reality, it felt somewhat like a guard’s tactical change. This week’s North Convention, where the game is going with 3s and defense, has brought Golden State into a fight with a supercomputer VIC-20 instead of the Internet.
It’s amazing that the Warriors are third in their own 3-point frequency. But since they’ve come from more than half of their two players, their defense doesn’t put pressure on their breaking point like the Celtics’ distribution does. Kerr is still amazed, and Clay Thompson can still make it rain, but Golden State’s 2-point shooting, free throw, and turnover are the league’s average or worse.
It raises our final question: will the league be like this in five years? Isn’t it difficult to build a talent-based system like Boston’s, where eight people can shoot 3s and defend perimeter shots? I want to say, definitionally, that half of the league’s boys can be an average shooter, right?
Whether or not, look for imitators to be born soon. The Celtics are fantastic, and stopping them is an impossible task – especially when trying to mash switches with Kristaps Porzingis, which occasionally annoyed Boston in previous postseasons. Shooting threats are a complete nightmare to find, but if the Celtics’ lineup holds up until June, I hope their numerous competitors will try.”
Travel gateway: The Analytic State of the Union
As I mentioned, I attended the Sloan Sports Conference this past weekend and wanted to briefly comment on the state of analytics in the Union and how it’s becoming increasingly trained on reliable data from sporting events rather than the sesquialteral post-season. Technically, most of the company’s efforts are in these two places, and it has been for many years.”
Please note that some parts of the translation may not be perfect due to the complexity of the text and nuances of language translation.
On the contrary, there are two areas of analysis that I don’t think require immediate attention. First and foremost, when it comes to the health of athletes in professional sports, particularly in the NBA, we often find ourselves in the dark. Despite some exciting advancements in sports science, particularly in areas like load management, there’s still relatively little discussion about it in the analytics world (where it has been included).
Secondly, I’m genuinely frustrated by the regression to low-tech solutions that may not receive adequate attention. Currently, each pro league, especially in North America, is influenced by a form of salary cap. Thus, the source of contention lies in your dollar value cap being better than other teams’.
While there are many innovative metrics available to us for assessing the value of players, determining who’s better is not an easy task; it’s akin to trying to grasp victory by capturing the most value in dollar cap investments year after year. (In reality, as you might observe over the past decade-plus, and upon closer inspection of the “analytic” teams, they were often better in cap management.)
Nevertheless, I don’t believe that optimization or mathematicians are ever really delving deep enough into what might be termed a “nap-sack problem” – an endeavor to maximize talent staffed as much as possible. It’s not as exciting as working with Hawkeye cameras, but I wonder if it will yield greater returns in the long run for winning.
Cap Gains: A Two-Headed Coin
Hard-core NBA observers have noted the flurry of end-of-roster transactions last week and there are two good reasons for it. First, the deadline for teams to waive players for playoff rosters and still be eligible for a replacement is still open until March 1; it effectively serves as an “out of time limit” because, after this point, any waived players are not playoff-eligible.
However, another impending deadline is the March 4th deadline for the biannual exception. As a result, several teams have been conducting their dual-path evaluations for additional talent discovery or finding eligible players to sign a biannual by utilizing their current dual-paths to their active days or all use. (For example, Memphis had to waive Moukuf to free up space after using all 50 of their active-roster games.) All said, there have been 15 dual-paths signed since the All-Star break, and we’re probably going to see a couple more before the deadline. (As I write this, four dual-path spots remain open in the league.)
More generally, quite a few teams have moved a player from dual-path to active list last week, having learned that they need to sign a dual-path by March 4 for a replacement. Atlanta’s Trent Forrest, Dallas’ A.J. Lawson, Detroit’s Stanley Umude, Golden State’s Lester Quinones, Chicago’s Onuralp Bitim, San Antonio’s Dom Barlow, Brooklyn’s JaQuan Wilkins, Indiana’s Kendall Brown, Toronto’s Javon Freeman-Liberty, and Washington’s Eugene Omoruyi are all now active.
As far as new dual-paths go, league executives have expressed long-term frustration with adding extra dual-paths in the new CBA, which has further tilted the available talent pool in G League’s favor and rendered it almost financially unfeasible.
One intriguing addition is in Milwaukee, where they signed Jalin Gallo after his season in Australia with the 6-6 Illawarra Hawks concluded. Fun fact: they needed to play an extra game on March 4 for Williams to end his season for a playoff play-in; otherwise, he wouldn’t have been free and only able to sign a roster spot in a later contract.
Gallo is a 21-year-old Aussie who was self-eligible for 2022 draft because he played high school basketball in the Atlanta area before returning to Australia. Our Sam Vecenie wrote about him back in the preseason. He’s an athletic wing whose shooting is a question mark, but what he brings to the table is truly an upside play for Milwaukee compared to what they might find in Oshkosh next offseason. They cleared the path for him to see if he’s worth a shot in the offseason before the off-season begins.”
Weekly Forecast: Yves Missi, Freshman C, Baylor…
(Note: This section will not profile the top prospects of the week. Just what I see.)
As the autumn begins, a scout who observed Baylor’s practice told me that Missi is emerging as a lottery pick. I told him he was out of his mind; I’ve seen Missi’s performance and hustle in the Hup Summit, and he was miles away from being a professional.
This weekend, quickly advancing, and my friend’s prediction seems so crazy. With the NBA XSC deadline looming large as part of their annual post-deadline cram session to hype up big college games, several dates on the calendar were bigger than the Kansas-Baylor matchup on Saturday. And what Missi did in the Bears’ game entry is here:
Missi exploded in the Kansas case, sending the ghost of Tom Chambers packing. Adam put on a dominant overall performance – finishing with 17 points – leading the #7 Baylor to an 82-74 win over #15 Kansas. Especially, Missi flashed the ability to attack the bigs outside the dribble, which will be necessary as a versatile scorer in a stretched-out skin (he measured the right span with a 7-2 span in the Hup Summit and a 9-1 standing reach).
Born in Belgium and raised in Cameroon, Missi quickly made his raw materials – he’s already emerged from a scoreless Hup Summit among the top college basketball players.
Scouts will want to know where he can go from here. Missi is a 63.7 percent foul shooter, but adding range to his jumper could make his game even better outside the dribble. He’ll need to be seen more as an assist guy, with just 12 assists all season. He still fouls a lot and partially disappears as a rebounder because his thin frame gets pushed around. Finally, Missi, like most one-and-dones, is young, turning 20 in May. All these factors might not favor him in the eye of analysts.
All these nitpicks might keep him outside the top 10 on draft night, probably, but there’s potential afterward. In a weak draft class, Missi’s raw materials could make him a stronger draw than other years, and he’s already capable of playing as a changeable five. With his dribble game and background story, Missi could create a Pascal Siakam-type post-draft trajectory for himself.
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